On May 18, in response to a May 16 post by Igor Chudov titled “’Vaccine Against Variants’ is Impossible and Will Endanger the Naturally Immune,” my friend and co-author Charley Hooper wrote:
Chudov presented two main points. First, creating a vaccine to address many of the SARS-CoV-2 variants will be difficult, if not impossible. Second, there’s some evidence that a pan-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine could harm those who were originally unvaccinated but now have immunity due to natural infection. If his two points are correct, then any mass vaccination campaigns could hurt many people.
But here’s why I’m not concerned:
(1) The technical difficulties of developing a pan-SARS-CoV-2 vaccine will be overwhelming. Igor Chudov describes this issue.
(2) The pandemic is over.
I live in a lightly populated area of Northern California. Except in medical facilities, it is rare for me to see anyone with a mask and it’s been that way for a month or two. Life has gotten back to normal: crowded bars and restaurants, in-person meetings, parties, travel, gyms, sports, etc. Combine that with a lot of “vaccine hesitancy” in my town and we should be primary candidates for SARS-CoV-2 infections and fatalities. But the sky hasn’t fallen because the virus has mutated into highly contagious but relatively benign forms. The new variants are almost as contagious as the all-time record holder, measles. Which means that, unless you’ve been living in a cave, you’ve probably been exposed many times to people capable of infecting you. Whether you’ve been vaccinated or not, you probably have good immunity at this point. And, if you do become infected and have symptoms, your illness probably won’t be bad.
For a quick point about how contagious the measles virus is, if no one in the whole world had any immunity to measles and you, and you alone, were infected, you could infect the whole planet in 25 days. This assumes an infection factor of 18 (every infected person can infect 18 others), three days for an infection to manifest, and adequate mixing (via travel, public events, etc.). The number for the SARS-CoV-2 variants is almost the same: 28 days.
People aren’t getting measles once a month. People aren’t getting COVID once a month. The only conclusion we can draw is that most of us have substantial immunity to SARS-CoV-2.
(3) Most of the new vaccines won’t be developed.
Why? In addition to Point 1, because people like me [Charley consults to pharmaceutical companies] will inform the vaccine developers that there won’t be much of a market for their new vaccines. The demand is just not there. Plus, the FDA was incredibly permissive with giving emergency use authorizations to the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. Don’t expect a repeat anytime soon. With the FDA back to its normal habits, vaccines might take years to develop. Consider the Novavax vaccine, which still hasn’t been approved by the FDA. Drug companies won’t see a way to make money on the new vaccines. Most will be abandoned.
(4) Even if the new vaccines are developed, few will use them. Unpopular vaccines won’t be mandated.
The demand just isn’t there. People are ready to move on. They aren’t afraid of COVID anymore. Will governments require vaccinations? Other than some authoritarian governments, I don’t think so. People, including me, lined up to get the original vaccines. They will stay away in droves for the new ones in an act of civil disobedience.
Any government that relies on popular support will quickly see the new vaccines as a losing proposition.
I have two points to add.
First, on Charley’s statement in point (3) above:
Plus, the FDA was incredibly permissive with giving emergency use authorizations to the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. Don’t expect a repeat anytime soon. With the FDA back to its normal habits, vaccines might take years to develop.
Note that Charley is describing, not recommending. He and I both think that the FDA should be extremely permissive, at a minimum. He has written a whole book recently, Should the FDA Reject Itself?, that makes that case in some detail.
Second, I want to add a point made by co-blogger Scott Sumner: we now have a cure for COVID-19: Paxlovid. A cure beats a vaccine.
