GDPNow Q3 at 2.4% SAAR

Atlanta Fed upped its nowcast for Q3 from 0.3%, on the basis of advanced international data, and annual benchmark GDP numbers:

If Q3 turns out to be 2.4% as nowcasted, then the picture of business cycle indicators looks like this:

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 9/30 for NFP (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP with Q3 observation implied by GDNowcast of 9/30 (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes dates associated with a hypothetical recession in H1. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (9/1/2022 release), Atlanta Fed (accessed 9/30), and author’s calculations.