The Geographic Distribution of Economic Activity, through June 2022

From the Philadelpha Fed, coincident index 3 month growth rates, through June 2022:

Source: Philadelphia Fed, July 27, 2022.

Negative growth is recorded only for Alaska and Montana. Using the Baumeister et al. Weekly Economic Conditions Indicator, growth is only hit negative (through June 25) for Alaska and Utah.

The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index has been diverging from both the official BEA measure and the IHS Markit measure of GDP:

Figure 1: Monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), coincident index (teal), Official GDP in Ch.2012$ (blue bar), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source:  IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (7/1/2022 release), Philadelphia Fed, BEA, and author’s calculations.

In some respects, this is not too surprising. The Philly Fed indices are based on four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average),” and these reflect mainly the labor market, which as we know from the establishment survey was still strengthening through June.

For comparison’s sake, here is the map for 2007M12, the NBER peak before the Great Recession:

Source: Philadelphia Fed.

At least 13 states, including Michigan, were recording a decline at the onset of the Great Recession (but 9 months before Lehman).