The Two Quarter GDP Decline of 1947

Using latest vintages of data:

Figure 1: GDP in Ch2012$ (blue bar), nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (tan), all in logs 1947M02=0. All latest vintages. Source: BEA, BLS, and Federal Reserve via FRED, and author’s calculations.

Official GDP registered a 1% and 0.8% declines in Q2 and Q3 (SAAR). This period is not defined as a recession by the NBER BCDC.