Erasing the 2001 Recession

Here are data around 2001, for GDP, employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade industry sales, personal income. Note: no consecutive quarters of negative growth, as in the Chris Cillizza rule.

Figure 1: GDP in Ch2012$ SAAR (blue bar), nonfarm payroll employment (blue line), industrial production (tan), personal income excluding current transfers, in Ch2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade industry sales, in Ch2012$ (red), All series latest vintage. Macroeconomic Advisers monthly GDP (pink), civilian employment (chartreuse), in logs, 2001M03=0. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve, Census all via FRED, IHS Markit, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Use the two quarter rule, et voilà, there is no 2001 recession.

More on this in this post.