Alternative Measures of Output

Treasury’s discussion today of current outlook mentions GDPPlus, which I had not recalled. Here is GDPPlus in addition to GDP, GDI, and GDO.

Figure 1: Real GDP (bold black), GDI (blue), GDO (red), and GDPPlus (pink). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession date shaded gray. Source: BEA, NBER, Philadelphia Fed, and NBER. 

GDP Plus q/q SAAR growth in Q1 was 2.7%, as compared to the -1.5% for expenditure side calculated GDP.

GDPPlus follows the methodology laid out in Aruoba et al. (J.Econometrics, 2016) [ungated version]. Jim H. discussed the GDPPlus approach in this 2015 post. GDO is discussed by Furman (2016).