So You Think We Might Be In a Recession as of Mid-June?

With today’s employment situation release, we have the real-time Sahm rule indicator through June:

Source: FRED, accessed 7/8/2022.

This indicator does not suggest that we were in recession as of mid-June (when the survey was taken), contra suggestions (e.g.). For other high frequency based indicators through June, see this post.

Here are some of the key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC:

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for NFP as of 7/6 (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (7/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.