So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part V)?

Weekly data through June 18th, and through June 25th, and Google/big data through July 2nd, on the US economy (follow up on Part IPart II, Part III and Part IV).

Source: Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI, via FRED, accessed 7/7/2022.

Source: Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims Weekly State Economic Conditions Indicator, through 6/25/2022, accessed 7/7/2022.

 

Source: OECD, accessed 7/7/2022.

First reading on conventional monthly indicators tomorrow – from the employment situation release for June. Bloomberg consensus at +268 for NFP, +240K for private NFP. Assuming no revision to May numbers, this is the trajectory of NFP.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, May release (blue), April release (tan), March release (green), February release (red), and Bloomberg consensus as of 7/7, assuming no revision to May release (pink square), all in 000’s, s.a., on log scale. Source: BLS via FRED, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.

Through June, it seems that what data we have does not indicate a recession in place (while consensus is for a recession in 2023, even possibly 2022H2).