Official, chained, sticky price, 16% trimmed, and (for March) PCE deflator.
Figure 1: Month-on-month inflation of CPI (blue), chained CPI (brown), 16% trimmed CPI inflation (red), sticky price CPI inflation (green), personal consumption expenditure deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted using geometric Census X12 (brown). NBER defined recession dates (peak-to-trough) shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Note that over the past few months, trimmed and sticky price CPI inflation has been less that headline. Trimmed < headline suggests price increases are concentrated in certain categories. Stick < headline suggests flexible prices are doing the bulk of the price changes.
For core measures:
Figure 2: Month-on-month inflation of core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (brown), sticky price core CPI inflation (green), personal consumption expenditure core deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (i.e., 0.05 means 5%). Chained CPI seasonally adjusted using geometric Census X12 (brown). NBER defined recession dates (peak-to-trough) shaded gray. Source: BLS, BEA, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
The fact that sticky price core inflation is roughly the same as core inflation suggests that energy and food are the components accounting for a lot of the general price level increases.
More at CEA. Calculated Risk discusses here and here. See also Jason Furman.
