Oil Price Forecasts: DoE EIA vs. Futures

Forecast as of 3 March, and confidence intervals implied by options.

Source: EIA, accessed 3/10/2022.

As of today, futures still indicate a decline over time.

Figure 1: Price of WTI, $/bbl (black), spot price as of 3/7 (gray+), NYMEX futures as of 2pm 3/10 (blue line). Source: EIA via FRED, NYMEX via ino.com, NBER.

On average, futures outperform a random walk and simple time series models like an ARIMA (see Chinn-Coibion, 2014).