Inflation Expectations at 1 Year Horizon

Economists’ expectations rise, while household measures trend sideways.

Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected (preliminary) from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), mean from Coibion-Gorodnichenko firm expectations survey [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.comReutersPhiladelphia Fed Survey of Professional ForecastersNY FedCleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko

A reminder that — as all expectations of y/y inflation move up — consumer/household based expectations are higher than those from economists and other forecasters, and (as discussed here), upwardly biased. Currently, household expectations are about two and a quarter percentage points higher than economists’ expectations.