More on the “omicron dud”

Following up on “omicron is a dud” – From CDC, forecasted deaths of 10 January 2022:

Source: CDC.

Here is the forecast of hospitalizations.

Source: CDC.

If you thought the deaths forecast was being overtaken by events, I’d tend to agree. Tabulating using more up to date daily data, I get the following graph.

Figure 1: Covid deaths, 7 day moving average (black), weekly deaths from CDC Jan 10 ensemble forecast (red square), and interquartile range (gray +), all on log scale. Source: accessed 1/16, and CDC.

As of 1/15, one estimate of reported deaths per day (I’d bet eventually excess deaths are greater) is 1931. The four week forecast implies 2873 deaths/day on average, with interquartile range of 2177, 3293.