“omicron is a dud”

That’s one assessment of the impact on markets. Certainly in terms of public health impacts, that’s not true.




ICU use is also rising and projected to rise.

Source: IHME, accessed 1/15/2022.

So while hospitalizations relative to cases (and deaths to cases) are much lower, given the transmissability, it’s not clear to me that gross impact (hospitalization, ICU use) will be so much less. IHME projects (as of 1/15) peak deaths in this wave at 80% of Fall 2021 peak – so nontrivial.

Perhaps the comment refers to economic impact, rather than human cost. As noted in the previous post that elicited the dismissal of “dud”, we know high contact services (e.g., restaurant seatings) activity looks down.  More broadly, mobility, in-place work are down.

Source: Slok, personal communication, Jan 12, 2022.

Source: Slok, personal communication, Jan 12, 2022.

I will also add that whether omicron is a dud, macroeconomically, depends in part on how China responds to it, given its zero tolerance policy thus far.