Five Year Expected Inflation Now, Five Years from Now

From the markets:

Figure 1: Five year inflation breakeven calculated as five year Treasury yield minus five year TIPS yield (dark blue line), five year breakeven adjusted by inflation risk premium and liquidity premium per DKW (light blue thin line), five year five year forward expected inflation calculated  from Treasury and TIPS yields (red), all in %. Source: FRB via FRED, Treasury, Kim, Walsh and Wei (2019) following D’amico, Kim and Wei (DKW) accessed 11/5, NBER and author’s calculations.

Markets seem to indicate average CPI inflation of about 2.7% over the next five years, down considerably from a month ago. Long term expected inflation, as proxied by the 5 year 5 year forward spreads, is also down from two months ago.