As the Nation Approaches 800,000 Covid Fatalities

Commenter Rick Stryker wrote confidently on August 20, 2020:

If I’m right, then we’d get a total death toll of 368K.

As of the 12/13/2021 CDC release of officially tabulated Covid-19 fatalities, cumulative fatalities through the week ending 11/27 were 793.834, somewhat exceeding 368,000.

Since recent weeks’ worth of data are usually incomplete, it’s useful to use a tabulation up to a date several weeks prior. I use the week ending 11/6 to end the tabulation. Then cumulative official deaths is 775398, cumulative excess deaths is 871994.

Figure 1:  Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal). Note excess fatalities equals zero for early observations where expected exceeds actual. Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC  12/13/2021 vintage, and author’s calculations.

The latest CDC ensemble forecast shows over 10,000 fatalities/week over the next four weeks, with the cumulative hitting about 825,000 by 1/1/2022.

Source: CDC, release of 12/6/2021.